Recalling the Tangshan earthquake in Wenchuan: bad science progress stops or decline?

Tags: panzhihua earthquake in Wenchuan earthquake Tangshan earthquake earthquake prediction of earthquake monitoring earthquake science is the basic condition for earthquake early warning. From the Tangshan earthquake to Wenchuan earthquake, 32 years, China earthquake science do? earthquake prediction of what progress? what difficulties have been encountered? "1966-1976", "1977-erlinglingqi", on China's earthquake prediction is utterly different in two historical unit. The previous unit, to twentieth-century China fourth "climax scene", and the overlap of the cultural revolution. After a unit, earthquake from the quiet period toward active period, coincided with the opening of the "reform." After the cultural revolution, Tangshan painful lesson, people once the cause is attributable to the political, finds the "gang of four" and his gang severely damaged interferes with monitoring and prediction. At the beginning of reform and opening up, "Tangshan earthquake failed to make the impending failure, the fundamental reason is that our understanding of earthquake is still very poor" became official. After the 1990s, with the high-tech applications in Geosciences, particularly space Earth observation techniques and digital seismic observation technology, earthquake science level has been available and used in telescopes astronomy and biology microscope using comparable to leap. National Digital seismic network in 2002 emphasise, passed national examination. A total investment of nearly 23 billion RMB Chinese Digital seismic observation network works in Wenchuan earthquake one month ago erlinglingbanian April 11 had just passed the acceptance check. From the Tangshan earthquake to Wenchuan earthquake of 32 years, China seismological work approach and earthquake prediction system also have been adjusted. In addition to earthquake prediction, seismic sector strengthened project seismic work, take a large number of construction projects of earthquake engineering, "achieved good social and economic benefits." The cultural revolution Decade developed mass monitoring and preventing the seismic forecasting, sweeping overhaul. Tangshan earthquake, there are masses of measuring points more than 33 000, 200 000 amateur forecasting staff. Mass monitoring and preventing team considered insufficient "scientific", in 1979, after the rectification, to the end of 1981, the masses will measure and report points to the five thousand more, amateur forecasting staff reduced to twenty thousand people. During the cultural revolution, Sichuan is mass monitoring and preventing big province, there are amateur forecasting staff 14 000 people, after the cultural revolution, by rectifying the stack to the 1985 has insufficient thousand left. "Legislation", "Science" is the theme of this period, prior to this, many things become "reform" of the object. However, how should the evaluation of the 1966 to 1976 in China earthquake prediction that an earthquake "climax scene" experience and lessons for the next earthquake science development has various meanings? seismic scientists Zhang nationals, who think: "(1966-1976) this period is the cause of an unprecedented development of earthquake prediction, it laid the seismic monitoring tools and infrastructure," predicting method. But because of the earthquake is not very clear, it is also difficult to distinguish between tectonic movement, earthquake and some interference with the distinction of anomalies and contact, was unable to confirm a one-to-one earthquake precursors and seismic activity in anomalous, therefore, "the current thinking of empirical prediction is very difficult to make the current level of earthquake prediction is the improvement of quality, less likely to get through it full of earthquake prediction. "Scholars wuzhong Leung wrote:" the earthquake prediction some experience and mastery of these experts, is the calculator are irreplaceable. A challenging question is, how to make these experiences become inheritable, repeatable, development of knowledge ". Tangshan earthquake in more than 30 years, China's earthquake prediction in chaotic state. It's in some ways, the impetuous development of certain aspects of the mark, some areas in decline. It must also be pointed out in particular that the Tangshan earthquake, impending earthquake false negatives in earthquake territories left a serious sequelae. Tangshan earthquake before the academic controversy, since mixed into power and interest of the complex factors that cause service divisions. Experienced from xingtai, haicheng earthquake, some of the Tangshan earthquake "Calculator the irreplaceable" experienced an earthquake prediction workers, engaged in scientific research of the golden age, marginalized, or even combating marginalization. Lancang, Yunnan 1988 earthquake gengma, is considered a new advent of seismic activity period. 1995-2000, State Seismological Bureau emphasized "the 1990s is likely to be China earthquake-prone period". Reality is, the 1990s of seismic activity, far from 1966 to 1976 in intensity. Impact larger earthquakes are: 1996 took place in Yunnan Lijiang's seven earthquake (death o nine), 1996, the earthquake in southern yellow six levels (Shanghai Zhen sense), and six level earthquake 1998 zhangbei (death of 41 people). Three earthquakes were non-Pro earthquake prediction. From 1996 onwards, Geller (Robert J. Geller) and others in the natural "," Science "magazine published an article on a continuous, self-organized criticality" is in a State of the Earth, a small earthquake disaster is likely to become a major earthquake, "and thus cannot predict earthquakes. Then it was contradicted article published, one in international academic controversy erupted earthquake. Many people believe that even if you can make the right on earthquake forecasting, short-term and impending earthquake prediction is not possible. However, it is interesting, Tangshan earthquake after 30 years, China earthquake workers still have 20 times more successful short, temporary forecast. This is the seismic industry achievements are basically not been mass media — for any earthquake prediction, both positive and negative information, seems to be under control. In my case, these include: Beijing xiaotangshan September 22, 1995-2000 for four earthquake; Qinghai Republican 1994 February 16 5 8 earthquake; Yunnan menglian-Burmese border at three on July 12, 1995 an earthquake; Sichuan Ganzi white — December 21, 1996, Batang, 550 earthquake; Jiashi 1997 April 6 at six levels, six four earthquake; October 2, 1998 in ninglang to November 19 fourth five-level (maximum six L2) earthquake; a haicheng, Liaoning province xiuyan on November 29, 1999, vPoint VI earthquake. November 30, 1999, mianzhu, Sichuan province, five earthquake (epicenter in Han Wang town); Yunnan dayao scrutinised July 21 six secondary earthquake, earthquake on October 16 at 6 levels; Gansu folk scrutinised for three years at level 25 October; a recent earthquake, is ning'er erlinglingqinian June 3% earthquake. The success of these forecasts, and still benefit from the experience of prediction methods. Where seismic earthquake, xiaotangshan sector also known as the "Asian earthquake", the epicenter of the old Beijing is only 10 km away, takes place in the Asian Games a few hours before the opening of its forecast, meaning no small matter. Former State Seismological Bureau Secretary party zhangshun memories: ... I remember September 18 in the afternoon, met in men-TOU Vallely, there were a dozen comrades speak, they speak is very simple, for example, this means there is nothing abnormal, and the area's history, some strong relationships in which it put forward the views of the recent judgement. So come back after we reported on the State Council, and on the possible impact of the earthquake are telling more objective. If four or five levels, without causing any casualties and destruction, games to keep cool, otherwise people step on it may cause injuries, such as essentially did have a pretty good idea of the Organizing Committee. As a result, the opening day at 11 am at two minutes were a four-level of earthquake, just turn off the games village so close. This is the current status of the Chinese earthquake Science: high-tech, the miraculous is not already displayed. Thirty-two years after the Tangshan earthquake, earthquake prediction is still feeling their way forward. Sometimes, no sign of the earthquake was discovered and captured. More often, forecasting, and earthquakes. Included in the determination of the twentieth century, China's major earthquake of concepts, found strong upsurge roamed rule, it seems that the curtain will be overwritten. Scrutinised one year on November 14, in the calm of the earthquake was considered, in the traditional identification of seismic high intensity region, Kunlun happens earthquake at eight levels. Scientists are discussing the "21st century, in our country is among the hundreds of people occurs more earthquakes", Wenchuan earthquake is coming. Faced with the challenge, the official explanation is: earthquake in Wenchuan earthquake happened before had not received any official about the region's short-term forecast. From the results of monitoring of earthquake, did not find significant, widespread, can allow the seismologists are existing scientific level, based on existing experience and judgment "precursor" exception. However, this article writing, to the epicenter of geologists, has found a significant earthquake macroscopic anomaly phenomenon. On this earthquake of deeper, has begun. Wenchuan earthquake have long-term and medium-term forecast of? the answer is clear. The Wenchuan earthquake of tectonic setting — longmenshan fault zone, earthquake territories and the Government has never given up monitoring; Wenchuan earthquake happened two years ago, seismic sector pointed out that the area was happening earthquake of 7. But why, no short-term forecasts and impending earthquake prediction that completely failed to alert? summary China earthquake early warning of experiences and lessons learned, allow me to repeat in this article, the first question: who has long been the expert knowledge, and has a strong earthquake in the South and the seismic zone, earthquake territories done what monitoring? what precautions do Government? songpan, pingwu earthquake after 32 years, earthquake territories on the area of what risk analysis and judgement? erlinglingqinian and erlinglingbanian national earthquake trend conferences and Sichuan earthquake trend conferences, Dragon Hill fault zone seismic situation, what kind of medium-term forecasting advice? total investment of nearly 23 billion RMB Chinese Digital seismic observation network engineering, occurring in the Wenchuan earthquake is not played before the necessary functionality is deployed in North and South? seismic zone of observation sites, is not found exception information, or information does not have sufficient Exchange, failed to provide the majority of earthquake prediction workers share? in post-earthquake inevitably make retrospective survey found a kind of macro-exception? this area there are no long-term observation of these exceptions, even if it is the only remaining "mass monitoring and preventing"? Wenchuan, is there and live near the earthquake occurred in both the short and the impending earthquake prediction? — including professionals and amateurs; including through the provision of formal escalation procedures and discussion in academic occasions. Earthquake early warning, in the final analysis, is the Government's public administration acts. People need to know before the Wenchuan earthquake, earthquake territories and the Government had exactly what kind of communication and interaction? if this earthquake, no warning of possible?